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About Forecaster

The Forecaster tool allows investors to select a combination of assets, currencies and time horizons of interest for comparison on a risk-return chart. These forecasts are produced by the Multi-Asset Solutions’ Research team at abrdn. We aim to update the forecasts on a semi-annual basis, with the current numbers correct as of February 2023.

Return projections are estimates and provide no guarantee of future results.

For institutional, professional, qualified/wholesale investors only. Not for retail clients.

Equities

Regional outlook

The latter part of 2022 saw divergent performance for equity markets. The US terminal rate rose another c150bp, alongside waning recessionary concerns and normalising energy prices. In contrast to 1H2022 which saw similar interest rate rises and double digit equity declines, the most recent rising rates saw DM markets trade broadly sideways and up, with Europe, Australia and the UK posting local-currency returns of 3-6%, whereas China (-14%) and Emerging Market (-4%) struggled. China’s returns were amplified by the regulatory clamp-downs, a property crisis, and the ongoing impact of COVID restrictions.

As we described earlier, little has changed in our paradigm construct, thus our fair-value assessment of most regions has stayed fairly stable. This means that cheaper markets now look more attractive on a total return basis, with China A and Emerging Markets coming at the top of our equity return forecasts with 5Y local currency returns in excess of 9% p.a.. Conversely, we forecast that some of the long-term return has already been realised in the UK and Europe, therefore prospective returns are slightly more muted. With a return of 6.3%, we expect little price-return for the US, owing mostly to the continued elevated valuations in the region despite the recent sell-off. Our assessment of sluggish nominal-GDP growth in Japan continues to drag the prospective equity returns, though we note that demographic shifts are likely to slowly increase productivity growth.

We have also incorporated updates to our climate scenario analysis, which produced divergent results. The latter part of 2022 saw the Energy and Utilities sector perform well, owing to elevated energy prices due in part to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These sectors are very exposed to the climate transition given their elevated carbon emissions, with the Energy sector in particular having an expected double-digit decline on a 30-year time horizon. Given these sectors now take up a larger portion of global equity indices, the impact on our returns is now slightly more negative than it was previously. The opposite is true in China, where increased policy ambition, particularly in the Industrials sector, has lead to a positive contribution to our expected returns.

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Legend

Cash-equity line

* Unhedged Value

NOTE

The cash-equity line serves to illustrate risk-adjusted relative performance. Assets above the line are expected to outperform a portfolio of equivalent risk containing only cash and equities; assets below are expected to underperform.

Forecaster Change

Important information
For professional investors only, in Switzerland for Qualified Investors – not for use by retail investors

The projections or other information generated by abrdn's Forecaster tool, and any forecasting information contained in this document, regarding the likelihood of various investment risk and return outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.

No projection or forecast can offer a precise estimate of future returns or volatility in global asset classes or markets. Forecasts are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. abrdn believes that the benefit of this information is highest in evaluating the potential risk adjusted return of various components of a globally diversified portfolio.

abrdn’s forecast modelling incorporates both proprietary and third party tools to derive a risk and return data for each asset class listed. Our forecasts and projections are informed by history while making forward looking assumptions. We make use of economic forecasts, implied market views and assumptions about historical trends and mean reversion over several time horizons. We use various macroeconomic and asset-class specific variables as inputs. In attempting to forecast expected returns and volatility, we use a multi-factor risk model to project the estimated volatility. Using an array of economic scenarios that we deem plausible future outcomes for each region, we forecast asset class returns within each; overlaying a probability distribution defined by our economics team, we can evaluate a probability weighted mean outcome for each asset in our universe. Results produced by the forecasting tool will change with each use and over time. Further information regarding our forecast modelling can be delivered upon request.

The data included is strictly for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer, investment recommendation, or solicitation, to deal in any of the investments or funds mentioned herein and does not constitute investment research. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Any research or analysis used in the preparation of this data has been procured by abrdn for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose. The information is based on reasonable assumptions supported by objective third party data. The results thus obtained are made available only coincidentally and the information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Some of the information in this data may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. These statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially. The reader must make their own assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information contained in this data and make such independent investigations, as they may consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment. Any opinion or estimate contained in this data is made on a general basis and is not to be relied on by the reader as advice. Neither abrdn nor any of its employees, associated group companies or agents have given any consideration to nor have they or any of them made any investigation of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular need of the reader, any specific person or group of persons.

Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the reader, any person or group of persons acting on any information, opinion or estimate contained in this data. abrdn reserves the right to make changes and corrections to any information in this document at any time, without notice.

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The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis, should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an ‘as is’ basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the ‘MSCI’ Parties) expressly disclaims all warranties (including without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages (www.msci.com).

FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) © FTSE 2020. ‘FTSE®’ is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under licence. RAFI® is a registered trademark of Research Affiliates, LLC. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

All data is calculated gross of fees. Assets refer to the following indices or strategies data. UK Equities = MSCI United Kingdom Index; US Equities = MSCI USA Index; Europe ex UK Equities = MSCI Europe Excluding United Kingdom Index; Japan Equities = MSCI Japan Index; Pacific ex Japan Equities = MSCI Pacific Excluding Japan Index; Emerging Markets Equities = MSCI Emerging Markets Index; Global Equities = MSCI AC World Index; UK Gilts = ICE BofAML UK Gilt Index; UK Inflation-Linked Gilts = ICE BofAML UK Inflation-Linked Gilt Index; US Treasuries = ICE BofAML US Treasury Index; US Inflation-Linked Treasuries = ICE BofAML US Inflation-Linked Treasury Index; Euro Govt Bonds = ICE BofAML Euro Government Index; Euro Inflation-Linked Govt Bonds = ICE BofAML Euro Inflation-Linked Government Index; Japanese Govt Bonds = ICE BofAML Japan Government Index; Global DM Govt Bonds = ICE BofAML Developed Markets Sovereign Bond Index; UK IG Bonds = ICE BofAML Sterling Corporate Index; US IG Bonds = ICE BofAML US Corporate Index; Euro IG Bonds = ICE BofAML Euro Corporate Index; Global IG Bonds = Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg Corporate Index; US High Yield Bonds = ICE BofAML US High Yield Index; Europe High Yield Bonds = ICE BofAML Euro High Yield Index; EM Corporate Bonds (Hard) = J.P. Morgan Corporate EMBI Broad Diversified Composite Index; EM Sovereign Debt (Hard) = J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Composite Index; EM Sovereign Debt (Local) = J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Index; Senior Secured Loans = S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index; ABS - Mezzanine = Bloomberg Barclays Euro ABS FRN BBB Index; Insurance Linked Securities = Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Performance Index; UK Commercial Property = MSCI UK Monthly Property Index; US Commercial Property = MSCI US Property Index; Europe ex UK Commercial Property = MSCI Europe excluding UK Property Index; Global Commercial Property = MSCI Global Property Index; UK REIT = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT UK Index; US REIT = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT United States Index; Europe ex UK REIT = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Europe ex UK Index; Infrastructure Social = UK listed social infrastructure (comprised of existing UK closed-ended funds); Infrastructure Renewables = UK listed renewable infrastructure (comprised of existing UK closed-ended funds); UK Cash 3M LIBOR = ICE BofAML British Pound 3-Month Deposit Offered Rate Constant Maturity Index; USD Cash 3M LIBOR = ICE BofAML US Dollar 3-Month Deposit Offered Rate Constant Maturity Index; EUR Cash 3M LIBOR = ICE BofAML Euro Currency 3-Month Deposit Offered Rate Constant Maturity Index.

Bloomberg data are for illustrative purposes only. No assumptions regarding future performance should be made.

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(entities as at 22nd May 2023)

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